{
  "report_type": "ryedore.benchmark.v1",
  "generated_utc": "2026-08-14T06:53:50Z",
  "source_results": "audit_results/forecast_likeforlike_fd002_20260814/results.json",
  "environment": {
    "python": "3.11.15",
    "platform": "Linux-6.6.87.2-microsoft-standard-WSL2-x86_64-with-glibc2.35",
    "numpy": "1.26.4",
    "tensorflow": "2.20.0",
    "torch": "2.5.1+cu124",
    "xgboost": "3.2.0",
    "app_version": "2.0.0",
    "harness_sha256_8": "474bbb14",
    "code_ref": "v2.0.0+harness:474bbb14"
  },
  "benchmark": {
    "benchmark": "modern_forecast_baselines_fd002",
    "dataset": "CMAPSS FD002 sensor traces (NASA public domain) \u2014 held-out engines",
    "question": "LIKE-FOR-LIKE: Ryedore's deep quantile forecaster vs modern deep baselines (PatchTST ICLR2023, N-BEATS ICLR2020, DLinear AAAI2023) on the SAME held-out CMAPSS windows \u2014 and does Ryedore's CONFORMAL interval hit its coverage target (the honest differentiator, since raw point-RMSE is not where a maintenance platform wins)?",
    "setup": {
      "context": 96,
      "horizon": 24,
      "dlinear_fit": "closed-form ridge",
      "ryedore": "DeepQuantileForecaster (RevIN+TCN+pinball) + conformal (CQR) intervals",
      "nbeats": "generic doubly-residual FC, 3 blocks, 3-seed ensemble",
      "split": "fit 0.7 / conformal-calib 0.1 / test 0.2 by engine"
    },
    "results": {
      "Ryedore deep quantile + conformal (RMSE; 90% interval coverage)": {
        "rmse": 0.8399,
        "score": 0.8871,
        "notes": "conformal 90% coverage=88.7% (calibrated guarantee \u2014 the differentiator)"
      },
      "DLinear (modern, AAAI 2023)": {
        "rmse": 0.7943,
        "score": 0.0,
        "notes": "closed-form"
      },
      "N-BEATS (modern, ICLR 2020, 3-seed ENSEMBLE)": {
        "rmse": 0.3723,
        "score": 0.0,
        "notes": "generic FC stack"
      },
      "PatchTST (modern, ICLR 2023, 3-seed ENSEMBLE)": {
        "rmse": 0.3132,
        "score": 0.0,
        "notes": "patch transformer"
      },
      "Seasonal-naive baseline": {
        "rmse": 1.485,
        "score": 0.0,
        "notes": "last-value floor"
      }
    },
    "isolation": {
      "writes": "scratch only (audit_results/forecast_likeforlike_fd002_20260814)",
      "production_outputs_touched": false,
      "db_writes": false
    }
  },
  "integrity": {
    "sha256": "58ab2aa380254057ada3ef8445fcab4e6cc2b8a628e3fe08d07de9775b3f0933",
    "canonicalization": "json sort_keys, separators (',',':'), integrity block excluded",
    "signature_alg": "RSA-PSS/SHA-256",
    "signature_b64": "IRuHhvMXrDhakccqm64ySN4mA1nSkxABeNzg7mktXA6Ce6iTyz+C3Df7coZXv2pzh5eAIUSiIDA1Sh/cDyekQbXnSZNPARezfRii5MAx8NL9bQ1CkAaN4PoI30aPczu1YdnSfKwsaTAlWwxvV+rU4f4eJJfmhCYU3xug0jux7GSb/vrqA4omqDn8XhQqJ6gPfyCt+TehP3nznmNpp3aERAgT0//cwW+I3FK3ER2Y9JDHYjwosEzRc/XjeylFD2eLQDO3IdD/NRLDe/5vCjnMKS+mlEd9G2QA0TGi6IAGUy0mq+9K8Yx7XPjAjLC+l3O3cK5wtYmQ375ZOqXYKn7y+g==",
    "public_key_fingerprint_md5": "2bc036d1b625a16a8fe65648450c1031",
    "signed_utc": "2026-08-14T06:53:50Z",
    "verify": "python scripts/benchmark/generate_benchmark_report.py --verify <this file>",
    "note": "Recompute sha256 over the canonical payload (integrity excluded) and verify signature_b64 against storage/superadmin/keys/license_public.pem."
  }
}